17 July 2020

Load Forecasting Case Study with TESLA Forecast

Solcast has an established history of collaboration with load forecasting tech company, TESLA Forecast. Together, we're taking on the next generation of rooftop solar challenges in South Australia. Learn more in our case study.

Solcast has an established history of collaboration with load forecasting tech company, TESLA Forecast. Together, we’ve been providing load forecasts operationally to AEMO WA for the past two years. Tesla Forecast uses customised Solcast Grid Aggregations for the Southwest Interconnect System (SWIS), in order to adjust the daily and hourly load profiles for the rooftop solar generation.

Behind the Meter Load Forecasting

As previously covered on our blog, Solcast is now leading a consortium which includes TESLA Forecast, AEMO and several other key partners to deploy a similar service in South Australia (SA). South Australia has one of the highest rooftop PV penetrations in the world, and you can learn more about the project in this short video:

Together, we’re advancing the technology for rooftop solar forecasting, and the resulting load (demand) forecasts for SA to accomodate for the ‘nowcasting’ forecast horizon. This extends from the first few minutes through the first few hours. It will feature new cloud growth and decay modelling from Solcast, and update the demand forecasts sub-hourly.

Advancing the Science of Load Forecasting for the Emu Curve

Substantial investment has been made in improving the very short range (0-5 minute ahead) and longer range (day ahead to week ahead) weather forecasting horizons. This project’s aim is to improve weather forecasting at the 5 to 360 minute ahead forecasting horizon, where a significant technology gap has been identified.

Rapid increases in embedded rooftop PV over the last decade has morphed the daily shape of the South Australian system demand curve. Due to its slightly different shape than the Californian Duck Curve, it’s known as the Emu Curve in Australia. And while we’re at it, they call it the Dead Armadillo curve in Texas :) !

Collaborative Load Forecasting Case Study

Together, we’ve published a collaborative case study document, covering the most important aspects of our collaboration. It includes a few key examples on how the demand curve has been changing in SA over time, and the fundamental challenges this invokes. We’ll be sure to update you with further results and findings as the project progresses over 2020 and 2021.

Find the Case Study here

Blog Author

Dr. Nick Engerer

Dr. Nick Engerer

Solcast CTO

Nick is an expert in the field of solar radiation and distributed solar PV modelling, and has co-founded Solcast out of a sincere desire to enable others to build the solar-powered future.

Read more about Dr. Engerer’s scientific papers

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