A high-pressure system centred over France, Spain, and the Atlantic has led to 20% more irradiance than usual across Europe this August so far and is forecast to continue. This surge in sunshine has resulted in record-breaking solar generation across several European countries, with grids setting new highs for the month. According to analysis using the Solcast API, this trend is expected to persist for the remainder of August, delivering continued elevated solar generation across the continent.
On August 5th, France recorded its highest-ever single-day solar generation, as clear skies delivered increased irradiance due to the high-pressure system sitting across France and the Atlantic and an unusually dry atmosphere in the region. The clear skies allowed for optimal solar conditions, which, combined with a 30% expansion in France’s solar market over 2023, resulted in a generation peak of more than 15 GW for the first time. Due to seasonal changes and a shortening day, August typically sees less irradiance than June and July. However due to a cloudier than normal June and July, and the particularly clear conditions this August, August 5th was one of the sunniest days this year, with average irradiance levels surpassing 6.5 kWh/m² across almost the entire country. While days earlier in the year approached this level, national solar generation had not exceeded 15GW previously.
Other European markets also experienced their highest solar generation for any August, a result of the combined effect of increased irradiance and ongoing growth in solar capacity. Regions from Spain to the Balkans benefited from irradiance levels 10-20% above the August average. This widespread uptick in solar generation has been significantly driven by capacity increases, rather than record-breaking irradiance. In Germany, industrial and commercial solar installations surged by more than 80% in the early months of 2024 compared to previous years, while Italy added 1.7 GW of new solar capacity in Q1 2024, nearly four times the amount installed in 2023.
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Update - 28th August 2024: As forecast, French generation peaked above 15GW again on August 27th, though this does not appear to have surpassed the standing record from 5th August.
Looking ahead, forecasts indicate a strong finish to August for photovoltaic (PV) generation. The final week of the month is expected to bring clearer skies, continuing the favourable conditions for solar power. Solar generation across Europe’s grids is projected to be around 30% higher than during the same period in previous years, even after adjusting for the recent growth in capacity. This suggests that the sunny conditions and high solar output will persist, marking August as a standout month for solar energy across the continent.
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Dr. Hugh Cutcher
Lead Data Scientist
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Author
Hugh is a Data Scientist at Solcast. He holds a Bachelor of Engineering (Hons. I) in Mechanical Engineering and a PhD in Combustion from University of Sydney. Hugh believes that renewable energy is critical to ensuring a cleaner and safer world going forward and is excited to play a part in helping fulfil that potential.
