Northern Europe takes the brunt of first winter systems

European solar generation displayed a sharp north-south divide in November. Southern Europe enjoyed a final surge of sunlight before the onset of winter, with Italy achieving a 22% increase in solar power generation compared to the November average while Northern Europe grappled with the season's first winter storms. Countries like the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands experienced production deficits up to 10% below the monthly average, with irradiance at or below average driven by persistent cloud cover and storm activity.

Southern Europe benefited from a stabilizing high-pressure system that deflected much of the Atlantic’s moisture-laden air masses northward. This created dry and sunny conditions for Southern France, Italy and much of the Mediterranean. Italy notably outperformed, with irradiance up to 10-30% above average for November, driving 22% more solar production across the month. Increased irradiance in Southern France compensated for reduced northern output with the national grid seeing 6.5% above-average generation. The Iberian Peninsula saw near-typical irradiance, where high-pressure anomalies shifted winds to the south bringing warmer, moister Atlantic air to southern Portugal and Spain from Andalucia to Cataluña.

In contrast, Northern Europe faced the brunt of the seasonal transition. High-pressure anomalies drove northerly Atlantic and North Sea air masses into the continent, amplifying cloud cover and suppressing solar generation potential. The UK experienced an 8.6% decrease in solar output, Germany saw a 5.7% decline, and the Netherlands faced a 9.3% shortfall. The increased cloud cover also stemmed from Storm Bert, which struck England and Wales in late November. Solcast API data from November 24 revealed a prominent rainband stretching across these regions, contributing to widespread flooding and further diminishing solar output.

Mountain ranges played a key role in modulating these patterns. In Scandinavia, the shielding effect of Norwegian terrain prevented southern Norway and parts of Sweden from experiencing the same cloudy conditions as their western neighbors, leaving them with above-average irradiance. Similarly, the Alps helped Southern Europe maintain clearer skies by blocking some of the northward-moving moisture.

Despite the challenges in the north, the mixed results across Europe underline the region’s geographic diversity in solar generation potential. November's contrasting weather patterns highlight the importance of adaptive planning and forecasting to optimize solar generation across the continent.

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